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Financial Theory
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FORUM View
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Human Aspects
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Financial Markets
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The value of any asset is equivalent to its discounted future cash flows.
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Financial markets are inherently inefficient, regularly mis-pricing assets.
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Markets are driven by
- Institutional incentives & imperatives
- Fear and greed, mass psychology
- Short-termism
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Businesses
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The earnings potential of a business is determined by its sustainable competitive advantage.
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A manager with wrong character traits and values can devalue or destroy any business.
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Managers have
- Different skills
- Different characters
- Different goals
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Investors
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Active investing with outstanding brains and a defined process will generate Alpha.
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The biggest risk factors in investing are bounded rationality and lack of discipline - WE ourselves are the biggest risk!
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Investors are hampered by a plethora of mental limitations and biases.
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